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FEBRUARY 18,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

WHOOPS – A 2002 radio interview of Donald Trump, by Howard Stern, has surfaced.  Stern asked, "Are you for invading Iraq?"   Trump answered, "Yeah, I guess so."  Anderson Cooper brought up the comment tonight in his Town Hall interview with Trump, and Trump conceded that he could have said that.  For months Trump has argued that he opposed the Iraq war, called it a disaster, and blamed George W. Bush.  I don't know what this does to his credibility, and I'm not so sure it matters in this weird race.

SEND HELP TO THESE CHILDREN, PLEASE – From Breitbart – Students at Rutgers University were so traumatized by Breitbart Tech editor Milo Yiannopoulos’s visit to their campus that they had to hold a group therapy session, campus newspaper The Daily Targum reports.  According to the paper, students and faculty members held a wound-licking gathering at a cultural center on campus, where students described “feeling scared, hurt, and discriminated against.”  “A variety of different organizations and departments were present to listen, answer questions and show support” to the apparently weak and vulnerable students, who just a few days prior had disrupted Yiannopoulos’s event by smearing fake blood on their faces and chanting protest slogans.  One student at the event told the Targum that they “broke down crying” after the event, while another reported that he felt “scared to walk around campus the next day.” According to the report, “many others” said they felt “unsafe” at the event and on campus afterwards.  Our next generation.  I wish their parents had practiced more effective birth control.

THEY CALL HER "HONEST HILLARY" – Actually they don't.  Hillary Clinton, in an interview with Scott Pelley of CBS, refused to say definitively whether or not she has ever lied to the American people.  Pelley asked, "You talk about leveling with the American people. Have you always told the truth?"  Clinton replied, "I've always tried to. Always. Always."  She went on to say, "Well, but, you know, you're asking me to say, 'Have I ever?' I don't believe I ever have. I don't believe I ever have. I don't believe I ever will. I'm gonna do the best I can to level with the American people."  Well, that should certainly settle it.  After that, how can anyone question Hillary's integrity?  Shameful critics and doubters!

February 18, 2016       Permalink 

NOW THIS IS SERIOUS STUFF, AND IT'S NUCLEAR – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:   It is incredible how this slipped by the mainstream media.  Well, maybe not so incredible.  From Reuters: 

BAGHDAD Iraq is searching for "highly dangerous" radioactive material stolen last year, according to an environment ministry document and seven security, environmental and provincial officials who fear it could be used as a weapon if acquired by Islamic State.

The material, stored in a protective case the size of a laptop computer, went missing in November from a storage facility near the southern city of Basra belonging to U.S. oilfield services company Weatherford (WFT.N), the document obtained by Reuters showed and officials confirmed.

A spokesman for Iraq's environment ministry said he could not discuss the issue, citing national security concerns. A Weatherford spokesman in Iraq declined to comment, and the company's Houston headquarters did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

COMMENT:  Not to worry, I'm sure.  Barack Obama is on the case.  And Inspector of the World John Kerry is right behind him.

In fact, this has been a fear for decades – that stolen nuclear material might wind up in terrorist hands.  One blast from a so-called "dirty" nuclear bomb could make a small area of a city uninhabitable for years. 

February 18, 2016       Permalink

DR. SOWELL MAKES HIS CHOICE – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:   One of the writers we most respect here has endorsed a presidential candidate.  From Breitbart: 

Thomas Sowell, a leading intellectual who has been on the frontlines of the conservative movement for decades, is endorsing Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) as his choice to be the next President of the United States.

Writing in RealClearPolitics, Sowell explained that “the vacancy created on the Supreme Court makes painfully clear the huge stakes involved when we choose a President of the United States.”

“Given the advanced ages of other justices, the next president is likely to have enough vacancies to fill to be able to shape the future of the court that helps shape the future of America,” Sowell added.

Sowell castigated the “frivolous rhetoric and childish antics” seen in the recent Republican debates.

“If ever there was a time to choose a president with depth, rather than glitter or glibness, this is it,” he commented.

The conservative intellectual revealed he is no fan of Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“Some seem to think that Donald Trump’s lead in the polls and in the New Hampshire primary make him the most electable candidate, even if he often acts like an overgrown spoiled brat,” he opined.  “But the fact that Trump leads in the polls does not mean that he is electable in the general election this fall. He is ahead only because the majority vote among Republicans has been split among so many other candidates.”

COMMENT:  Dr. Sowell is right.  Trump is an overgrown spoiled brat.  Cruz is a man of considerable intellect and depth.  While I happen to believe that Marco Rubio is more electable, Sowell's endorsement should be taken seriously.  A leading African American intellectual, he has been one of the great voices of reason in America in recent years.

February 18, 2016        Permalink

CHINA MAKES ITS MOVES – AT 8:50 A.M. ET:  The Chinese are not waiting to see who the next president will be before moving aggressively in the South China Sea.  From IBD:

China surprised the world by placing an advanced missile system on the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. It’s a coldly calculated challenge to the U.S. doctrine of freedom of the seas.

It’s the most brazen step yet to militarize the world’s busiest shipping lane, home of $5 trillion, or one-third, of global trade. On tiny Woody Island, China planted two batteries of eight HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles with a range of about 125 miles, following construction of an airstrip. The missiles give them a 250 mile swath of water between the Philippines (500 miles away) and Vietnam (270 miles). They also menace Taiwan, just 674 miles north. It creates not only a new boss astride a third of the world’s shipping lanes, but also a Beijing-controlled air defense zone.

And...

This is definitely a strike at Taiwan, which recently held fair democratic elections that displeased Beijing.

But even more so, it was a heavy blow to the U.S.’ credibility as the traditional guarantor of freedom of the seas in that region — which in fact is our Navy’s most important mission, as strategist Robert D. Kaplan wrote in his “Asia’s Cauldron.”

How bad was it? The missiles were deployed just two weeks after Wang explicitly promised Secretary of State John Kerry there would be no militarization of the South China Sea at a meeting in Beijing, showing contempt for the U.S. China neither fears U.S. power nor a U.S. response under this White House if it can make such toilet-paper promises to a visiting American asking for its cooperation on keeping the seas free.

Kerry’s response Wednesday showed why. “We have said repeatedly with respect to China that the standard that should be applied to all countries with respect to the South China Sea is no militarization,” he babbled. He called Beijing’s missile battery “of serious concern,” and declared he would have a “further very serious conversation” with the Chinese about it.

Sound scary?

COMMENT:  I'm sure the Chinese are quaking in their boots about the upcoming "serious conversation."  After all, that's more ominous than a "frank exchange of views."   That Kerry.  Tough guy.

February 18,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 17,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

IS IT ACCURATE? – From Fox:  Donald Trump has been knocked from his perch atop the GOP presidential primary field by Sen. Ted Cruz, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday evening.  The poll showed Sen. Cruz of Texas leading the New York businessman by two percentage points, 28-26, among Republican primary voters. Cruz’ lead is within the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error.  Florida Sen. Marco Rubio came in third, garnering 17 percent, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Dr. Ben Carson and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.  We don't know yet if this poll has caught a trend, or if it's just an outlier.  Fox comes out with a national poll and a South Carolina poll tomorrow, Thursday.

ANOTHER U.S. APOLOGY COMING? – From ABC News:   President Obama is planning a trip to Cuba some time next month, marking the first time in more than 80 years a sitting U.S. president will visit the country, according to sources with knowledge of the plan.  A National Security Council official plans to make the announcement tomorrow at the White House briefing.  The trip is planned for March 21-22 before the president flies to Argentina.  How exciting – an embrace of the Castro brothers, probably Obama's heroes.  I wonder if the great "leader of the free world" will visit any political prisoners.  Oh, he's also scheduled to visit Vietnam.  Just be grateful that this world traveler has only 11 months left in office.

REAL CLASS – From Mediaite:   President Obama will not be at the funeral for Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on Saturday.  The president will go to the late justice’s wake on Friday to pay his respects, but he will not attend the funeral on Saturday.  Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden will be attending Scalia’s funeral.  Obama just lacks class.  He wouldn't even send a high-level delegation to Margaret Thatcher's funeral, but personally attended Nelson Mandela's.  He should go to Scalia's funeral simply to pay tribute to a great and civilized legal scholar, agree with him or not.  French President Charles deGaulle, despite differences with the United States, walked behind John F. Kennedy's coffin after Kennedy's assassination.  There are big men and small men.

February 17,  2016     Permalink

ECONOMIC WARNING – AT 7:08 A.M. ET:   Please recall that the huge economic jolt that has produced years of agony in the United States occurred during the 2008 presidential campaign.  It may have had a role in handing the election to Barack Obama.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Eight years after the financial crisis, the world is coming to grips with an unpleasant realization: serious weaknesses still plague the global economy, and emergency help may not be on the way.

Sinking stock prices, flat inflation, and the bizarre phenomenon of negative interest rates have coupled with a downturn in emerging markets to raise worries that the economy is being stalked by threats that central banks - the saviors during the crisis - may struggle to cope with.

Meanwhile, commercial banks are again a source of concern, especially in Europe. Banks were the epicenter of the 2007-9 crisis, which started over excessive loans to homeowners with shaky credit in the United States and then swept the globe into recession.

"You have pretty sluggish growth globally. You don't really have any inflation. And you have a lot of uncertainty," says David Lebovitz, who advises on market strategies for JP Morgan Funds.

Some of the recent tumult may be an overreaction by jittery investors. And the rock-bottom interest rates are partly a result of easy money policies by central banks doing their best to stimulate growth in the years since the crisis.

Unemployment is low in several major economies, 4.9 percent in the United States and 4.5 percent in Germany. The IMF forecasts growth picking up from 3.1 percent last year to 3.4 percent this year.

But that's still far short of the 5.1 percent growth in 2007, before the crisis. The realization is dawning that growth may continue to underperform, and that recent turmoil may be more than just normal market volatility.

And...

"The world looks worse than it did six months ago," says Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. "Growth forecasts have come down. Risks have grown."

COMMENT:  Enjoy your breakfast.

February 17, 2016       Permalink

VIRGINIA STARTS TO SPEAK – AT 7:01 A.M. ET:  Polling in the key, purple state of Virginia shows that Donald Trump, at least for now, is not meeting expectations.  From Weekly Standard: 

The latest survey of likely GOP primary voters in Virginia from polling firm Overtime Politics gives Trump a 14-point lead over Rubio, 33 percent to 19 percent. John Kasich comes in third place at 14 percent, followed by Ted Cruz at 12 percent and Jeb Bush and Ben Carson at 8 percent each.

Overtime notes this is a bump of 5 points for Trump, 13 points for Kasich, and 5 points for Rubio since their previous poll in early January, while Cruz has dropped 7 points and Carson 9 points.

The second poll, from Christopher Newport University, found Trump with 28 percent support among likely Republican voters in the Old Dominion, followed more closely by Rubio at 22 percent, Cruz at 19 percent, Carson and Kasich at 7 percent each, and Bush at 4 percent. The poll was taken over the course of two weeks, after the Iowa caucuses and both before and after the New Hampshire primary.

COMMENT:  Trump is called the frontrunner, but he consistently polls in the low- to mid-thirties.  That's hardly blowout territory.  The rest of the field divides the anti-Trump vote.  If the field can coalesce around one candidate, Trump would be losing.  That winnowing is key to the future of the race.

Virginia votes on March 1st, which is "Super Tuesday."  From Wikipedia: 

"Super Tuesday in the 2016 election cycle is scheduled to be held on March 1, 2016. This date has been dubbed the "SEC Primary", since many of the participating states are represented in the U.S. collegiate Southeastern Conference.

"The participating states include: Alabama, Alaska Republican caucuses, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Republican caucuses."

Two weeks away. 

February 17, 2016       Permalink

THE FOLKS ARE LEARNIN' – AT 6:50 A.M. ET:  You mean there's media bias?  You mean voters actually notice?  Yeah, it's the truth.  From the Washington Examiner:

Media bias is a bigger problem than high dollar donations for 2016 likely voters focused on the presidential election, according to a new national survey.

Rasmussen Reports found that when asked "Which is the bigger problem in politics today," voters picked media bias over money, 47 percent to 45 percent.

What's more, the survey found that voters believe that the media has too much power in politics. Some 66 percent said it was too powerful, compared to just 26 percent who said the media wielded just enough influence in the election.

"Middle-aged voters tend to believe more strongly than other voters that the media have too much influence over elections," said the poll analysis.

Voters do generally agree that rich Americans and wealthy special interests also have too much power in politics, said Rasmussen.

COMMENT:  When we say "media bias" we generally mean left-wing bias.  Rasmussen says, "Voters are far more likely to think the media is biased against Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump than against his chief Democratic rival Hillary Clinton." 

I think one of the reasons for the success of Fox News is that it gives Republicans and conservatives a fair shot.

I don't know if media bias can be cured, since most reporters come from colleges that teach that liberalism is mainstream and that conservatism is the voice of the Devil.

February 17,  2016     Permalink